Message-ID: <3F3E30B3.21068.AC8019@localhost>
From: cta at hcsin.net (Bernie, CTA)
Subject: east coast powergrid / SCADA [OT?]

On 16 Aug 2003 at 5:36, Stephen Clowater wrote:
> Its highly unlikely that msblast had anything to do with the
> power outage. For one, the internal rpc network that is used to
> monitor actual power spikes, and to move current from one circut
> to the next in a grid is a closed network. And in the areas were
> it cant be closed (between major utilities) it is tunnled via a
> VPN. Yes it runs a bit of NT4 and a bit of Windows 2000, In the
> next few years there has been a plan proposed to make freeBSD a
> standard.
> 
> MSblast did not cause this, there have been warnings for the last
> 10 years that the grid was overloaded in the particular ring were
> the overload started. For years people have been warning that if
> a major transmitton line went during a high demand period of
> time, then you could be looking at a surge larger than can be
> midigated coming out of that ring. And then when it happens
> people come up with this theory that its msblast? Please, if that
> were the case, why have none of hte other billons of windows
> vunerabilities ever affected the grid? more specifically, why
> havent any of the thousands of rpc vunerabilites ever effected
> the grid?
> 
> And sure enough, this morning on CNN, officals said they have a
> working theory that a major transmition line inside the ring
> went, wich created a back wave in the grid until it finaly came
> around in the form of a hudge surge. Niagra somehow saw this
> coming and shut down all generators in time to stay on the grid,
> and as the failure expanded more failsafes kicked in to contain
> it.
> 
> This is far from a complete explanation. But it fits the
> avialable facts, it fits the timetable of what happened, and it
> makes logical sense in relation to the recent history of the
> power grid.
> 
> Now can we give msblast a rest? :)
> 

No, not yet...

First of all, it is unrealistic to assume that the power plants, 
distribution nodes and sub stations are still equipped with 1965 
technology. Have you ever visited any of these facilities? I 
have. 

Back in the 60s the primary feeder topology concerning supply 
and demand, onto and from, the grid were simplex, and the fault 
safeguards transient response capability was poor and typically 
lacked the ability to quickly switch/isolate or arrest a power 
surge to avoid or divert fault currents/voltages from 
propagating throughout the Grid. That is to say, most of the 
instrumentation was analog as were the safeguards, there were 
mechanical switchgear and humans pushing buttons. 

Today the primary feeders topology consists of duplicated paths 
of supply from a single power source, and are mostly controlled 
by sophisticated computers with active fault isolation 
mechanisms. In addition, there are many active and passive 
safety components, transient fault, overload, ground-fault, 
sensing current as well as voltage at all entry-points onto the 
grid. Sophisticated active lightning arresters (valve-type and 
expulsion-type, etc), ranging from station class > 1000kVA, 
intermediate-class <1000kVA to distribution-class < 46kV. 

Lightning voltage "potential" has been estimated to be between 
100 million and 1 billion volts. However, protection engineers 
are mostly concerned with the potential that appears on the line 
conductors "transmission lines". This potential is obtained by 
multiplying the current by the surge impedance Z of the 
conductor.  The potential which can appear upon any apparatus 
connected to the Grid / Towers is limited only by either 
protective measures or flashover of insulating components. Most 
towers have magnetic link mechanisms to read currents in the 
tower legs. Historical data shows that increase in current 
amplitudes resulting from a direct lightning stroke have been 
recorded in excess of 10,000 Amps. However, only 10% of the 
tower currents are in excuses of 32,000 Amps.

With that being said, the transient response, i.e. the speed at 
which a surge could prorogate is directly related to the 
conductors transient impedance. Typically, this transient 
(surge) impedance lies between 400 and 500 ohms for transmission 
lines. Consequently, assuming a straight path with no 
interdiction the typical velocity of propagation for 
transmission lines is 1000 ft / micro sec, 1 Mile / 5.28 micro 
sec, or 100 miles in about 528 micro sec.

Now lets assume that the distance between the strike zone and 
the next entry-point onto the Grid is 100 Miles. The safeguards, 
which are automated, would in theory have more than 500 micro 
seconds to respond. Considering the surge valves and other 
protective apparatus along the path, I find it implausible to 
accept that all of the switchgear and surge arresters failed to 
react within the 500us timeframe in order to isolate, divert and 
arrest the surge, and place alternative power sources on the 
Grid.

Sorry, but the lightning bolt theory alone is far fetched even 
if we apply chaos theory, or completely dispense with the 
statistical principle of goodness-of-fit. 

I still feel that there was human intervention to disrupt or 
otherwise circumvent the automatic safeguards, in response to an 
anomaly (i.e. MSBlaster). Or there was a lightning strike, BUT 
the protection measure failed to properly engage due to the 
MSBlaster, or again human intervention due to vulnerabilities in 
the protection monitoring and control systems. That is, maybe 
the automated protection systems were off line and being 
upgraded due to the threat of MSBlaster or otherwise. 
Furthermore, maybe a power surge did occur do to a lightning 
bolt or demand power surge, but the human could not respond in 
500us. After all, how many Jackie Chans are power plant 
operators.

Please feel free to shoot this theory to pieces.

-
****************************************************
Bernie 
Chief Technology Architect
Chief Security Officer
cta@...in.net
Euclidean Systems, Inc.
*******************************************************
// "There is no expedient to which a man will not go 
//    to avoid the pure labor of honest thinking."   
//     Honest thought, the real business capital.    
//      Observe> Think> Plan> Think> Do> Think>      
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