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Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2014 00:26:04 -0800
From: Jeremi Gosney <epixoip@...dshell.nl>
To: discussions@...sword-hashing.net
Subject: Re: [PHC] Future CPUs and GPUs?

On 2/27/2014 11:37 PM, Larry Bugbee wrote:
> All crystal balls are fuzzy at best, but in five years, what will be the likely GPU configurations and specifications at the knee of the cost/performance curve?  ...ten years? Adjustable parameters will help, but how will proposed algorithms faire against future GPUs?

This is just my opinion, but I view GPGPU as a hack, and I predict that
in 5-10 years time, GPUs will be largely irrelevant for compute. I think
the future lies in manycore CPUs -- dense processors whose primary
purpose is to function as a computational accelerator, and not to push
pixels.

The first generation of manycore accelerators are already on the market.
And while they have yet to really impress the GPGPU crowd, I don't think
it we will have to wait long before manycore CPUs begin to surpass GPUs
in terms of general compute performance.

I think that in five years' time we'll easily see manycore CPUs with as
many as 4k cores (I believe Adapteva already has the capabilities to
produce this chip), and in 10 years time I'm sure we will see CPUs with
8k cores, or maybe even more.

Again, just my opinion, but I really can't see it going any other way.
Especially with GPU manufacturers already reaching a performance
plateau. AMD (the password cracker's vendor of choice) failed to deliver
on GCN 2.0, and instead rolled out a new product line based on
last-generation technology. They were able to squeak out a new flagship
GPU which is faster than their previous flagship GPU, but this is
because they simply increased the area of the processor and added more
cores. There are of course major limitations to this approach, so unless
real innovation happens in that space, it surely will not be long before
manycore CPUs overtake GPUs.

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